RUBIO AND CRUZ IN THE LEAD? – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  That's the thoughtful conclusion of one political observer.  From Timothy Carney at the Washington Examiner:   

Ben Carson and Donald Trump still stand atop the polls, but Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are now the front-runners. Cruz and Rubio both debated brilliantly, and Jeb Bush failed to turn things around.

There's a trend here: The strong showing of fresh-faced first-term senators in their 40s shows a real readiness for change — a fact also evidenced by the poll dominance of outsiders Carson and Trump.

Rubio captures this spirit best, and packages it as an attack on Hillary Clinton, saying he'll make the general election a choice between the past and the future. Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina all tap into newly receptive conservative veins by blasting crony capitalism.

Meanwhile, consider Bush's weak campaign, John Kasich's flailing debate performance, and the negligible candidacies of Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore and George Pataki. The theme is clear: the Republican Party of the 1990s and 2000s is no longer in demand.

Our power rankings are not echoes of the polls or statements of the odds, but a measure over who matters the most in the race. Among the GOP Establishment, attention is decidedly drifiting from Jeb to Marco. Among the conservative base, you'll see a consolidation on Cruz. For now, this race is about Cruz and Rubio.

COMMENT:  I think there's a lot of sense in that.  As the primaries and the Iowa caucus move ever closer – in other words, when real voters start to vote – the field will shake out and things will get serious.  I can't imagine Donald Trump keeping his support.  And Ben Carson, whom I mightily admire, may also weaken because he really isn't strong on the issues.

The three best retail candidates in the race are Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina.  But Fiorina can't seem to gain numerical strength.  I don't know why.  Rubio and Cruz are left as the best contenders in the ring.  Between the two, Rubio seems to be gaining the most, in part because the GOP establishment, which still has influence, dislikes Cruz.

But all this can be wrong.  We're in for a very historic four or five months.

November 11, 2015